Todd Large Cap Intrinsic Value Review
July 17, 2014 | Jack White, CFA | Partner, Senior Portfolio Manager
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|2Q14||1 Year||3 Year*||5 Year*||7 Year*|
|Intrinsic Value Opportunity (Gross)||2.19%||25.93%||18.11%||22.45%||8.71%|
|Intrinsic Value Opportunity (Net)||1.98%||25.02%||17.27%||21.59%||7.97%|
|Russell 1000 Value||5.10%||23.81%||16.92%||19.23%||4.80%|
*Annualized Total Returns. Please refer to the Performance Disclosure at the bottom of this page for futher information.
The Intrinsic Value Opportunity Strategy posted a gain of 2.19% (gross of fees) in the quarter, trailing S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Value returns of 5.24% and 5.10% respectively for the quarter. For the Year to Date period, the strategy is lagging as well, but the longer term comparisons are much better. These results rank very well against most managers in our eVestment peer groups for all periods over 1 year.
With the S&P gaining a little more than 7% year to date, we see a number of points investors should be aware of, including;
- The range of YTD returns by S&P 500 sector are as follows; Utilities +18%, Energy +13%, Healthcare +11%, Info Technology +9%, Materials +9%, Consumer Staples +5%, Financials +5%, Industrial + 4%, Telecom +4%, and Consumer Discretionary +1%.
- Range of YTD total returns by asset class are S&P 500 up 7.1%, S&P Midcap up 7.5%, S&P Smallcap up 3.2%, Russell 1000 Value +8.2%, Russell 2000 up 3.2%, and Barclays AGG ETF +3.7%.
- Profit taking in the Consumer Discretionary and I ndustrial stocks has been one of the biggest drivers of performance in domestic markets, as investors saw harsh weather slow the economy.
- Rotation into Utilities and Energy defined the quarter. Healthcare also performed well as takeovers and safety spurred interest. Geopolitical uncertainty (think Ukraine and Iraq) has caused oil to rise, helping energy shares.
- The Fed continues to taper, yet volatility has declined and many banks/capital markets players are suffering.
- Mergers and Acquisitions have surged, especially in Health Care, Technology and Media. Most are occurring close to our calculated intrinsic value.
The strategy is concentrated to 30 stocks within the S&P 500 that have a combination of very good valuation, and excellent rankings on one of three other factors we use to evaluate income statement strength or balance sheet strength or technical strength in the market. It is unconstrained and last quarter it had almost 40% in the consumer discretionary sector, leading to most of our underperformance for the quarter. We have been through periodic episodes like this before, and when it occurs, it is usually an opportunity to buy the strategy "cheap" compared to what it should have returned. We expect a rebound in performance. This strategy is appropriate as a standalone aggressive alpha generator for clients seeking above average performance. It can also be used as c omplementary satellite strategy for clients using indexing in the core space to add some alpha generation into their portfolios .
We present our customary charts on what factors have been helping or hindering performance for US stocks below. While Beta was rewarded over the past year, i t has shifted to the underperformers in the most recent quarter. Valuations favoring cash flow, returns to shareholders and a ccounting book value have helped performance over the past quarter, along with certain momentum measures. Most other factors that we consider attractive tended to detract from returns during the quarter, perhaps as a result of the extraordinary actions the ECB and Bank of Japan are undertaking. It seemed like very little worked last quarter.
Compared to the S&P 500, stock selection and sector allocation detracted from performance. The combination of our overweighting in Consumer Discretionary with underperformance of selections in that space accounted for most of our underperformance during the quarter. Trends for the Russell 1000 Value index were similar.
Our best contributors on stock selection were the Consumer Staples and Industrials. Specific stocks that helped were Keurig Green Mountain Inc. and Lorillard in the Consumer Staples sector. In the Industrials, ADT and Robert Half helped most. The areas that cost us the most in stock selection were Consumer Discretionary and Energy. Specifically, Coach, Bed Bath and Beyond and Marathon Petroleum were laggards. Coach was removed after it violated our stop loss in the second quarter, but passed the screen for inclusion in our July rebalance. On our sector weights, we were overweighted the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary compared to the S&P 500 and underweighted all of the other sectors. We were completely out of the Telecommunications and Utilities.
Our best performing s tocks were Family Dollar Stores, Robert Half, Keurig Green Mountain, Lorillard and ADT. Coach, Bed Bath and Beyond, Fossil Group, Marathon Petroleum and Ross Stores were the weakest performers in the portfolio.
Given the nature of this portfolio, we look at the trends it identifies thr ough clusters of similar stocks as an important contributor to its success. After passing a rigorous fundamental review of valuation, we allow our trigger factors to direct the formation of the portfolio to highlight those combining attractive valuation with strong income generation, a strong balance sheet or exceptional technical strength. The resulting portfolio emphasizes valuable stocks that have triggers to recognize that value immediately. In other words, it tells you which trends the market will recognize and reward over the near term. The themes we saw highlighted during the quarter included:
- Luxury Brand Equity - Fossil, Michael Kors, Ralph Lauren and Coach.
- New Home Building or Upgrade - Bed Bath and Beyond, DirecTV and ADT.
- Discount Retailing - Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Ross Stores.
- Employment (direct or indirect) - Robert Half, WellPoint, Quest Diagnostics.
- Electronic Storage- Western Digital, Seagate and NetApp Inc.
Not all of these themes worked during this quarter. Still, our experience indicates that they had the combination of value and trigger factors that helps many of the trends identified by the strategy to produce meaningfully above market returns. We have rebalanced the strategy for the upcoming quarter, and it continues to favor the luxury and discounting themes, but has added a couple of restaurants as well in the consumer space. In energy, the refiners and drill equipment names are both represented. In Technology, we continue to see emphasis on storage but a couple of IT service companies are showing up as well. Time will tell, but we believe these are timely, investable ideas, and history suggests they are likely to outperform over the near term.Interesting charts from the US that we saw this quarter
We can go into chapter and verse about the quarter, the negative GDP, the geopolitical crises or any number of other items about recent market action, but the most important chart to look at is the rolling ten year market returns.
As always, w e are here to assist you. If you need any additional information, please feel free to contact any of us.
Jack White, CFA Curt Scott, CFA Jack Holden, CFA
Todd Asset Management LLC
S&P 500 - 1981
Russell 1000 Value - 1003
Refer to Performance Disclosure on the bottom of this page for more information on the performance numbers presented. These notes are an integral part of this letter and should not be reproduced or duplicated without these notes.
This publication contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Todd Asset Management, LLC. Such opinions are subject to change without notice. This publication has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Todd Asset Management LLC. © 2014.
TODD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
INTRINSIC VALUE OPPORTUNITY COMPOSITE DISCLOSURE
Past performance does not provide any guarantee of future performance, and one should not rely on the composite performance as an indication of future performance. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that the value of the account may be worth more or less than the original invested cost.
Specific stocks discussed in this presentation are included to help demonstrate the investment process or as a review of the Composite's quarterly results and are not and were not recommendations for purchase or sale by investors. All or some of the specific stocks mentioned may have been purchased or sold by accounts within the Composite during the period, or since the period, and may be purchased or sold in th e future. Investors should not construe the Composite's performance or any security as predictive of future results. A complete listing of the ho ldings as of the period end is available upon request.
Todd Asset Management LLC ("TAM") is a registered investment adviser. The performance presented represents a composite of tax-exempt fully discretionary intrinsic value accounts, invested primarily in large cap domestic equity securities with the objective t o seek capital appreciation. This goal is pursued by investing in a diversified portfolio of equity securities that TAM believes are trading at a discount to their intrinsic value.
Todd Asset Management LLC, formerly Todd-Veredus Asset Management LLC began operations on June 1, 1998 as Veredus Asset Management LLC (VAM). Effective May 1, 2009, VAM combined with Todd Investment Advisors, Inc. (TIA). TIA (and its predecessors) was founded in 1967 by Bosworth M. Todd. Upon the combination of VAM and TIA in 2009, Veredus Asset Management LLC changed its n ame to Todd-Veredus Asset Management LLC (TVAM). On February 28, 2013, TVAM redeemed ownership units held by individuals who supported the growth products founded under VAM, and changed its name to Todd Asset Management LLC. The firm continues to offer the sa me products and strategies managed by the same individuals and process founded under TIA
The Intrinsic Value Opportunity Composite contains fully discretionary, tax-exempt accounts that use either the S&P 500 Index or Russell 1000 Value Index as the benchmark. All fee-paying, fully discretionary portfolios under our management are included in a composite. Accounts are eligible for inclusion in the composite at the beginning of the first calendar quarter after the month of initial funding and upon being fully invested.
TAM claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). The Firm has been verified for the period January 1, 2008 through June 30, 2013 by Ashland Partners & Company LLP and for the period July 1, 1989 through December 31, 2007 by a previous verifier. TIA's compliance with the GIPS® standards has been verified for the period January 1, 1993 through April 30, 2009 by Ashland Partners & Company LLP. In addition, a performance examination was conducted on the Large Cap Intrinsic Value Composite for the period January 1, 2011 through June 30, 2013. To receive a complete list and description of TAM composites and/or a full disclosure presentation which complies with the GIPS® standards, please contact TAM at 1-888-544-8633, or write Todd Asset Management LLC, 101 South Fifth Street, Suite 3100, Louisville, Kentucky 40202, or contact us through our Web site at www.toddasset.com
The performance information is presented on a trade date basis, both gross and net of management fees and includes the reinvestment of all income. Net of fee performance was calculated using the highest all inclusive annual management fee of .60% applied monthly. Prior to September 2001, the highest management fee applied to the composite was .50%. The currency used to calculate and express per formance is U.S. dollars. All cash reserves and equivalents have been included in the performance.
The composite performance has been compared to the following benchmarks (all shown with dividends reinvested):
S&P 500 Index is a widely recognized index of market activity based on the aggregate performance of a selected unmanaged portfolio of publicly traded common stocks. The performance data includes reinvested dividends and was supplied by Standard & Poor's. It is included to indicate the effect of general market conditions.
Russell 1000 Value Index is a widely recognized index of market activity based on the aggregate performance of common stocks from the Russell 1000 Index, with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The performance data was supplied by Frank Russell Trust Company.
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